Inference and induction also are complicated by randomness, but even so, they are extremely useful tools in making aggressive bets in the hopes of winning big. “Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost.”, “Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. The industry has come under criticism for flaring excess natural gas. --Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. But that didn’t happen. A day trader makes a profit on his … I've finally read this book because a friend whose insights I give some weight to respects Taleb's ideas. Much of the anecdote in the book could have been removed to make way for the real substance of the book. No wonder demand is faltering. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Entire industries are facing a top to bottom re-make or possibly the loss of large segments. As the meltdown began, his first reaction was to ignore the market, thinking this was just a mood swing, and that the noise in one direction would soon be offset by the noise in another direction.
. They confuse knowledge and certitude with belief and conjecture. By using the model to simulate how the bulls, bears and cautious traders fare under the different boom and bust scenarios you can better understand prospects for success. Taleb has quickly become one of my favorite writers, possibly my favorite thinker. In 1948, as civil war ravaged Greece, children were abducted and sent to communist "camps" . Although meaningless, these randomly created sentences can often fool people into believing that they are literary or intellectual texts. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. and Stephen Jay Gould.” –Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play “We need a book like this . A nice thesis (humans are unable to correctly assess risk and probability and therefore fall into all kinds of traps) wrapped in pompous and befuddled writing. And it gets worse – like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: “Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do”, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probab. It has everything in a book that I yearn for....interesting ideas...some of which I don't grasp because hey are too clever for me...a smug narrator who seemingly knows more than everyone else...and a well-written and pleasing style. 'One of the smartest books of all time' Fortune 'The hottest thinker in the world' Sunday Times Everyone wants to succeed in life. Overestimate the accuracy of their beliefs in an economic or statistical measure; they don’t consider that their trading worked in the past because it was merely coincidental or that their economic analysis masked the random element in past events. August 23rd 2005 They believe they are skillful, when in fact they were lucky. Taleb will grab you.” –Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk “Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . Since people are not wired to understand probability, the importance of alternative histories doesn’t make intuitive sense. Most results in probability are entirely counterintuitive.”. fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” –Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, ©1997-2020 Barnes & Noble Booksellers, Inc. 122 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10011. Sunday, September 20, 2020 3:00 am.
Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and (mostly) practical problems with probability. But, it does get kind of tiresome to be told for the 5th or 10th time how unimpressed by wealth he is. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? and Stephen Jay Gould.”–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play, “We need a book like this . If you haven't heard of record-smashing singer and songwriter Mariah Carey, is there any hope for you? Again this speaks to narrowing breadth of leadership with IPOs like Snowflake skewing the results. Personally, my eyes glaze over when I read about trading, and I much prefer books like The Drunkard's Walk, which illustrates many of the same (but also many more) concepts. The idea of asymmetry doesn’t matter in most disciplines, but it is critical in finance, where an event, even if rare, cannot be ignored if it brings large consequences. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. Airline execs were in Washington this week asking for $25 billion to keep workers employed. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. This is the first book of INCERTO, the most polite, the simplest, and the best to start.
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